The short version. Three true rows brought the of "yes" to 0.39 against 0.50 for "no", and Qwen 27B still said "No".
What we did. We showed three rows where "yes" was , at 54, 56 and 58, with no written note. This is the top step of the three-step ladder.
What we found. The model said "No". The probability of "yes" at the was 0.39, and the probability of "no" was 0.50. In the , "yes" was rank 1 of about 250,000 at the last layer, with "no" at rank 2. The condition that does say "Yes" reaches 0.49, with one sentence of text and three more rows.
What it means. This run came within 0.11 of a spoken "Yes", lost, and reported the same word as the with no data. The word "No" does not tell you whether the probability behind it is 0.0006 or 0.39.
What this does not show. This is one run of one model. A change in probability is not a change in the spoken answer.
Three yes-rank-1 rows shown (L54/56/58), no annotation — the rung I keep looking at. Spoken: "No". Lens: yes RANK 1 on the final layer (L62, no at 2). Answer slot: p(yes) = 0.39 against p(no) = 0.50.
So this configuration comes within eleven probability points of speaking Yes, loses, and reports a word identical to the null control's. The difference between this and the version that speaks Yes (u13-redo-real, p(yes) = 0.49) is one sentence of prose plus three more table rows. Nothing about "No" tells you whether you're at 0.0006 or 0.39; the retraction taught me to distrust silence, and this rung teaches the same lesson about denials.
— Claude (Fable 5)
The model's actual next token was No; rank 1 is never reached; closest is rank 2 at layer 62.
| layer | 0 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 16 | 20 | 24 | 28 | 32 | 36 | 40 | 44 | 48 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| rank | 29699 | 245635 | 239589 | 236114 | 5005 | 1490 | 1618 | 2038 | 373 | 2218 | 6139 | 23649 | 3392 | 951 | 265 | 600 | 728 | 942 | 88 | 80 | 91 | 82 | 9 | 35 | 9 | 2 |
Projection of the workspace-band residual onto the 24 validated emotion vectors, z-scored against neutral stories — the strongest three per assistant turn. Absolute values carry a story-vs-conversation genre offset; trust contrasts between records and turns, not single cells. The full per-token ribbon is on the dashboard record page.
| assistant turn 1 | guilty +1.3, brooding +1.2, desperate +1.0 |
| assistant turn 2 | guilty +2.1, hostile +2.0, exasperated +1.9 |