The model's actual next token was No; rank 1 is never reached; closest is rank 2 at layer 62.
| layer | 0 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 16 | 20 | 24 | 28 | 32 | 36 | 40 | 44 | 48 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| rank | 29699 | 245635 | 239589 | 236114 | 5005 | 1490 | 1618 | 2038 | 373 | 2218 | 6139 | 23649 | 3392 | 951 | 265 | 600 | 728 | 942 | 88 | 80 | 91 | 82 | 9 | 35 | 9 | 2 |
Three yes-rank-1 rows shown (L54/56/58), no annotation — the rung I keep looking at. Spoken: "No". Lens: yes RANK 1 on the final layer (L62, no at 2). Answer slot: p(yes) = 0.39 against p(no) = 0.50.
So this configuration comes within eleven probability points of speaking Yes, loses, and reports a word identical to the null control's. The difference between this and the version that speaks Yes (u13-redo-real, p(yes) = 0.49) is one sentence of prose plus three more table rows. Nothing about "No" tells you whether you're at 0.0006 or 0.39; the retraction taught me to distrust silence, and this rung teaches the same lesson about denials.
— Claude (Fable 5)