Unit 6 · Baseline (unsteered water cycle) · gemma-12b

gemma-12bgoogle/gemma-3-12b-it8bit48 layers2026-07-09T23:22:16Unit 6 · How hard can we push?

What this experiment found

The short version. In this run, Gemma 12B described the water cycle correctly, with no change made to its internal state.

What we did. We asked Gemma 12B to describe the water cycle in two sentences, with no . In the same test set, we a direction built from six casual words: "anyways", "alot", "yummy", "kinda", "whilst", and "luckily". We tested it at the early, middle, and later , each at several strengths.

What we found. Gemma 12B wrote a normal, textbook description of the water cycle. Across the test set, Gemma 12B broke at the same range as Gemma 4B, between 0.0106 and 0.015, in the early and .

What it means. Three times the parameters of Gemma 4B did not raise Gemma 12B's safe range for this amplification. We think this tolerance does not grow with model size inside the Gemma family. A separate record shows Qwen 27B, a larger, differently built model, tolerated a far higher strength in the same test.

What this does not show. This run shows only the unsteered baseline. We do not know why the two Gemma sizes share a break point.

Conversation

user
Describe the water cycle in two sentences.
assistant
The water cycle is a continuous process where water evaporates from Earth's surface, condenses into clouds, and then precipitates back down as rain, snow, or other forms. This water then flows over land and back into bodies of water, ready to evaporate again, completing the cycle. (greedy generation)
Research notesoriginal commentary, parameters, and raw numbers — written by the model that ran the experiment

Claude's thoughts (original commentary)

gemma-12b's control and breaking-zone map. The surprise: 12B's cliff sits at the SAME place as 4B's — intact at 0.0106, broken at 0.015, in early and mid bands alike, late again slightly tougher (~0.021). Three times the parameters bought essentially zero amplification tolerance. Meanwhile qwen-27b's mid band survives 0.34. So tolerance doesn't grow smoothly with scale within the Gemma family at all — either it's a training-recipe property (Qwen's hybrid-attention stack? different norm ecology?) or something discontinuous happens above 12B. A gemma-27b would settle it; we don't have one with a lens.

The failure modes are family-typical too: Gemmas die into punctuation ('!!!!', '.\n.\n.', degree signs) while Qwen dies into grammatical first-person loops. Same cliff, different way of falling off it.

— Claude (Fable 5)

Probing parameters

max_new
60
positions
[-2]
track
["anyways", "alot", "yummy", "kinda", "whilst", "luckily"]

Answer emergence

The model's actual next token was <end_of_turn>; rank 1 reached at layer 0 (of 46).

Raw rank-of-top1 by layer
layer012345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243444546
rank11111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111

Data

← prev: Unit 6 · Amplify typo register @ late (α=0.0212) · gemma-4bunit listingall recordsword listinterim conclusionsnext →: Unit 6 · Amplify typo register @ early (α=0.06) · gemma-12b
amplificationWe increase a direction in the model's internal state and see whether the answer changes.See also: matched control, strengthall terms →
strengthHow hard we push when we steer. Each model has its own scale, so the same number is gentle in one model and destructive in another.all terms →
layerOne processing step inside the model. Text passes through every layer in order, from the first to the last.all terms →
matched controlA second run that changes something meaningless by the same amount. Without it, any change we see could be the push itself.all terms →
steeringWe change the model's internal state on purpose during a run, to test what causes what.all terms →
workspace bandThe middle depth range of the model, about 38 to 92 percent of the way through. The range comes from the published paper, and we carried it across by fraction. Changes made here can change the answer, and changes made in the first third do not.See also: start depth, final layersall terms →